Market Update – January 30, 2015

Except for a bounce in soybean oil futures, the CBOT is all red numbers today. General economic news (read below) is casting a bearish tone. Long liquidation is continuing in corn. Corn, soybean and Chicago Wheat futures have dropped to new lows for this move. Soybean meal has given up all the gains made earlier this week. Soybean and meal futures were hit by a 3 percent drop in the Brazilian currency which makes their beans/meal more attractive.

Cattle futures are strongly higher especially in the nearby contracts. Even as boxed beef weakens, the latest fed cattle prices around $159-160 offer support to the market. Choice Beef is down 1.20 to 243.39 and Select is down 1.31 to 237.03. The Cattle Inventory report is out this afternoon.

Lean Hog futures are mixed with losses in the nearby contracts. However, a steady cash hog market and firmer pork values are bring prices back from the morning’s lows. FOB Plant Pork is up .91 to 79.21 as rib and belly values recover.

US 4th quarter GDP came in at 2.6 percent, short of the 3.0 percent expected. This compares to 3rd quarter GDP of 5 percent.

The need for the ECB’s large quantitative easing (QE) program announced recently was confirmed with news that EU prices dropped 0.6 percent year/year in January. This added to December’s 0.2 percent drop. DEFLATION is a bad economic sign. Both the EU and the U.S. Federal Reserve are targeting INFLATION of about 2 percent.

Corn Mar -4 367; Jly -4 383; Dec -4 398
Bean Mar -9 959; Jly -8 971; Nov -7 944
Meal Mar -8 330; Oct -6 315
Oil +33 2987
Wheat Mar -7 500; Jly -8 509
KC -4 540; MGE -5 554
Oats -3 279
Rice -21 1065

LC Feb +132 15485 (lo 15280); Apr +115 15165; Oct +67 14710
FC Mar +82 20440; May +92 20562; Aug +60 20712
LH Feb -27 6827 (lo 6737); Apr -67 7252; Jun +22 8385
Milk Feb +10 1609; Mar +19 1565

US$ +.1%

Dow -.5%
SP -.4%
NAS unch
Tran -1%
VIX +6.3% 19.96

WTI +1.8%
Brent +.9%
Gas +.4%
NG -2%
HO +.8%
Eth -2.5%
Gold +1.7%
Slvr +2.9%

5-yr -.093 1.190%
10yr -.084 1.669%
30yr -.079 2.240%

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