Market Closes – May 3, 2016

CBOT futures traded higher overnight, but sold off once markets reopened at 830 am CT. Futures were pressured by the strengthening US Dollar which reversed the downward trend in place the past 2 months; the weaker US$ helped fuel the rise in commodity prices over this period. The US$ was supported by a weak economic report from China, a drop in Australia’s key interest rate, and weakening global equity markets. Soybean futures had surged over chart resistance last night, so today’s action plots bearish price reversals. Corn futures ended the day back below the 200-day moving averages. Offsetting today’s bearish technical action is fundamental support from estimates of significant production losses for soybeans in Argentina and corn in Brazil due to weather. After major fund selling today, the question is whether the speculative funds will step back in and buy or will the technical signals encourage more selling.

Kansas City July Wheat closed within 3 cents of the contract low established in early April. MGEX Wheat is over 40 cents above the contract low set in early March; spring wheat futures have been supported in part by drier conditions in the northern Plains.

Cattle futures closed higher (the 3rd day for most contracts) on additional short-covering. After hitting contract lows last week, Live Cattle charts show double-bottom patterns. Today’s market strength may be tested by a sharp drop in late-day boxed beef values — Choice down 3.83 at 205.94; Select down 2.94 at 197.02. Choice was only down 1.54 at Noon and Select was quoted UP 1.04, or $3.98 above the closing quote. Market receipts are expected to be down this week.

Lean Hog futures closed slightly higher after trading both sides. Traders ignored the weaker pork market. FOB Plant Pork closed down 1.16 at 82.57 with a sharp loss in ham value. The noon quote was 83.06.

Corn Jly -12 378 (hi 393); Dec -9 387 (hi 398)
Bean Jly -14 1030 (hi 1057); Nov -7 1010 (hi 1031)
Meal -5 342 (hi 353)
Oil -9 3241 (hi 3288)
Wheat Jly -17 471 (hi 493); Dec -18 499
KC Jly -18 456; MGE -12 536
Oats -6 199
Rice +11 1144

LC Jun +57 11637; Oct +75 11432; Dec +60 11430
FC May +197 14340; Aug +155 14305; Oct +67 14160
LH May +5 7847; Jly +22 8335; Oct +7 7045
Milk May -7 1296; Jun -4 1295

 

US$ +.4%
Dow -140 17751
SP -18 2063
NAS -54 4763
Tran -96 7828
VIX +.92 15.60 +6.3%

WTI -90 4388
Brent -53 4530
Gas -4 152
NG +4 208
HO -1 134
Eth -1 151
Gold -8 1288
Slvr -22 1746

2-yr -.040 0.754%
5-yr -.068 1.252%
10yr -.069 1.796%
30yr -.063 2.655%

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