Market Closes – August 12, 2015

CBOT futures closed sharply lower in reaction to the USDA Crop Report and WASDE supply-demand figures. USDA’s yield and carryout forecasts are larger than was expected by the trade. Additional pressure from China’s currency devaluation had markets leaning lower before the USDA reports.

CBOT futures crashed in the first 10 minutes after the reports came out and then bounced to close 8-11 cents off the lows. Corn traded to new LIFE OF CONTRACT LOWS which had been set in June. In less than two months, December Corn rallied over 90 cents, only to fall over 95 cents. Good risk management tools may have made this volatility easier to handle.

See Tobacco and Fruit estimates at end of email.

KY Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts are equal
to record yields set in 2013.

KY Corn and Soybean Yield Forecasts are equal to record yields set in 2013.

 

  U.S. Corn KY Corn
2014 yield 171.0 158.0
2015 yield 168.8

170.0

Ties record yield of 2013

2014 Prod’n 14.215 Bil. 225.9 Mil.
2015 Prod’n 13.686 Bil. 221.0 Mil.
     

 

  U.S. Soybean KY Soybean
2014 yield 47.8 48.0
2015 yield 46.9

50.0

Ties record yield of 2013

2014 Prod’n 3.969 Bil. 84.0 Mil.
2015 Prod’n 3.916 Bil. 92.0 Mil.

 

Live Cattle futures closed lower with a sharp sell-off heading into the 1:00 pm closing. Futures did manage to come back up some during the afternoon. Given the strength in boxed beef values, today’s sell-off may have been technical. Choice carcasses were up 3.09 at 244.02; Select up 0.65 at 235.45. Feeder Cattle futures were very volatile following the release of the Crop Report. The crash at the CBOT was considered bullish to Feeder Cattle, but then it wasn’t. Thus FC futures traded ranges of more than $3.00/cwt.

Lean Hog futures closed moderately higher, seemingly ignoring the CBOT and the Cattle market. This ended a 5-day run of lower futures. It also occurred as pork values fell. FOB Plant Pork ended down .69 at 9008.

US equity markets recovered from severe losses in place before Noon ET.

Corn Sep -19 357; Dec -19 368 (357-93)
Bean Sep -62 918; Nov -61 910 (901-76)
Meal -18 324
Oil -106 2910
Wheat Sep -15 492; Jly -15 512 (504-34)
KC -13 475; MGE -10 509
Oats unch 227
Rice -8 1171

LC Aug -147 14870; Oct -255 14660; Feb -142 14850
FC Aug -20 21387; Oct -15 20802; Jan -55 20005
LH Aug +112 7785; Oct +102 6337; Dec +70 6010
Milk Aug unch 1644; Sep -5 1657

 

US$ -1%
Dow unch 17402
SP +2 2086
NAS +8 5044
Tran -40 8276
VIX -.02 13.69

WTI +30 4338
Brent +54 4972
Gas +7 176
NG +8 292
HO +3 159
Eth -3 143
Gold +16 1123
Slvr +23 1551

2-yr -.012 0.665%
5-yr -.005 1.520%
10yr +.009 2.148%
30yr +.032 2.839%

 

U.S. Tobacco Production

Type

2014 area

(acres)

2015 area

2014 yield

(lbs)

2015 yield

(lbs)

2014 Prod’n

million

2015

Prod’n

Burley

101,500

KY – 76,000

84,000

KY –

62,000

2,100

KY-2150

1,872

KY- 1900

213.2

KY – 163.4

157.3

KY –

117.8

Fire-cured 18,630 17,450 3,175 3,247 lbs 59.1 million 56.7 million
Dark Air-cured 6,150 6,200 2,844 2,681 17,490 million 16,620 million
FLUE-cured         572.9 million 473.4 million

 

 

Fruit Production (data not available for Kentucky)
United States peach production is forecast at 804,600 tons, down 6 percent from 2014.

United States apple production for the 2015 crop year is forecast at 10.2 billion pounds, down 11 percent from 2014.

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