Market Closes – August 11, 2015

The surprise currency devaluation by China overnight hit the U.S. equity market, Treasury yields, energy futures and the CBOT. The funds were big sellers today, offsetting much of Monday’s purchases. Traders fear a currency war (who can weaken first/most?) among non-U.S. countries that will strengthen the US$ and make exports more difficult. The net result is deflationary pressures in the U.S. The timing for the Federal Reserve to begin raising its key interest rate is even more uncertain now.

Tonight’s 6-10 day and 8-14 day outlooks show above normal temperatures in the eastern half of the U.S. Expect drier than normal weather from the southern Plains through the Ohio Valley for the next 6-10 days, but moisture is forecast normal or better in the 8-14 day outlook.

Average guesses for what USDA will report at 11 am CDT tomorrow are:
Corn Production = 13.3 billion bushels with 164.7 bu/acre.
2015/16 Ending Corn Stocks = 1.45 billion

Soybean Production = 3.74 billion bushels with 44.8 bu/acre.
2015/16 Ending Stocks = 320 million

Cattle futures settled with slight losses but late-day trading saw a slight rally from those closing prices. Given the huge losses in so many other markets, it’s encouraging that cattle (and hogs) held up well today. Boxed beef values continue to improve so this could support futures tomorrow. Choice carcasses up 2.41 at 240.93; Select up 2.88 at 234.80.

Lean Hog futures posted negative closes at 1:00 pm CT, but have rallied during the afternoon as the pork market turned around. While pork cutouts were down sharply at midday, they ended the day higher. FOB Plant Pork ended up .57 at 90.77. LH futures had dropped for 4 straight days so an upward correction is not out of line.

Corn Sep -14 376; Dec -13 387; Dec16 -11 399
Bean Sep -27 981; Nov -23 971; Nov16 -16 925
Meal Sep -12 342
Oil -33 3016
Wheat Sep -18 507; Jly -17 528
KC -16 488; MGE -15 519
Oats -7 227
Rice -7 1179

LC Aug -7 15017; Oct -15 14915; Feb -10 14992
FC Aug -17 21407; Oct -5 20817; Jan -40 20060
LH Aug +7 7672; Oct -62 6235; Dec -5 5940
Milk Aug -2 1642; Sep -7 1663

 

US$ steady
Dow -212 17403
SP -20 2084
NAS -65 5037
Tran -55 8317
VIX +1.40 13.63 +11.4%

WTI -180 4316
Brent -124 4917
Gas unch 170
NG +1 285
HO -3 156
Eth -2 146
Gold +4 1108
Slvr +3 1532

2-yr -.052 0.677%
5-yr -.093 1.527%
10yr -.097 2.141%
30yr -.093 2.809%

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