Market Closes – April 19, 2016

CBOT futures rallied strongly on continued fund buying, led by the soybean market. Traders bought soybean futures on technical considerations and concerns that rains are damaging Argentina’s soybean crop. May and November soybeans are now $1.25/bushel above the early March lows (a cheap call option purchased early March would be worth a lot today). May soybeans closed at last August’s highs; resistance comes in at 10.34. Although soybean futures have been overbought for several days, it hasn’t stopped the rally; however, this is a bright caution light. Corn and wheat futures also rallied strongly on spillover support; speculators are pressured to cover their losing “short” position in corn and wheat. May corn has resistance at 3.88; December corn’s resistance is 4.015 and 4.035. Outside markets were also supportive as the US Dollar Index weakened and crude oil futures rallied. Despite today’s sharp soybean rally, the soybean/corn price ratio remains near 2.51, so the market isn’t “buying” many acres away from corn.

Cattle futures rallied into lunch, but gave it away before the closing bell to post negative settlement prices. The selloff was in response to a drop in boxed beef values. Midday losses of 1.33 worsened by the afternoon report which put Choice carcasses down 2.20 at 222.68; Select down 2.04 at 213.94.

Lean Hog futures closed strongly higher, the third day of higher prices. LH futures were supported by a firmer pork cutout even as cash hog prices weakened. Today’s rally keeps the May LH contract at a huge premium to cash prices, so expect substantial price movements. Positive packer margins should help cash prices.

Corn May +3 384; Jly +4 389; Dec +6 396
Bean May +31 985; Jly +32 995; Nov +29 996
Meal +12 305
Oil +83 3478
Wheat May +13 486; Jly +13 494
KC +12 488; MGE +11 543
Oats +5 196
Rice +10 1036

LC Apr -115 12732; Aug -32 11515; Oct -27 11532
FC Apr -40 15017; Aug -60 14652; Oct -72 14365
LH May +135 7620; Jun +110 7892; Oct +50 6855
Milk Apr unch 1371; May +1 1367

 

US$ -.4%
Dow +49 18054
SP +7 2101
NAS -20 4940
Tran +103 8106
VIX -.11 13.24

WTI +118 4096
Brent +111 4402
Gas +4 148
NG +15 209
HO +3 127
Eth +1 156
Gold +19 1253
Slvr +70 1695

2-yr +.016 0.761%
5-yr +.030 1.255%
10yr +.018 1.789%
30yr +.011 2.596%

Kentucky Farm Bureau Minute video  – Click Here 

KENTUCKY CASH GRAIN PRICES Click Here 

KENTUCKY LIVESTOCK AUCTIONS —  Click Here

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