Market Closes – April 11, 2016

CBOT futures made some big moves today and in opposite directions. Soybean meal was the big winner with 2% gains and this pulled soybean futures up 1%. Support came from unwinding the soyoil/meal spread and a stronger Brazilian Real relative to the US$. The spec funds are already long soybeans and happy to support this market. May Soybeans hit new highs for this move but stopped at key chart resistance at $9.295 (October high). In contrast, corn and wheat futures fell sharply. Conveniently, the speculators are also short these markets. Wheat was pressured by rain in the southern Plains and forecasts for more. While Chicago Wheat held above contract lows, Kansas City Wheat broke to new contract lows. Warmer and drier weather forecasts for the Corn Belt will get corn planters rolling. Today’s sharp drop wiped out the price gains earned the past 3-4 trading days.

Tomorrow, USDA releases its monthly updates to the WASDE supply-demand estimates.

Corn Planting Progress
.                     4/10/16          5-yr average
U.S.                   4%                    4% (1% last year)
KY                      6%                  10% (1% last year)
(TN=17%, MO=24%)

Winter Wheat Conditions – 18 States
.                 Good/Excellent        Poor/V.Poor
This Week            56%                  9%
Last Week             59%                  7%
Last year               42%                19%

Cattle futures closed lower on profit-taking after opening higher this morning – trying to add to Friday’s sharp gains. A strong beef market today could limit tomorrow’s losses. Choice carcasses closed up 1.65 at 216.45; Select up 1.80 at 207.05.

Lean Hog futures also closed lower. Losses were limited by a firm pork market and April LH futures being in line with the CME Cash Index. Packer margins in pork are pretty good, so the cash market should hold up. Selling pressure may be focused in the summer LH months given the large premium they have to the cash index. Today, FOB Plant Pork gained .37 to 77.17.

Corn May -5 357; Jly -5 360; Dec -6 369
Bean May +11 928; Jly +12 937; Nov +10 941
Meal +6 280
Oil -4 3390
Wheat May -13 447; Jly -12 454; Dec -11 479
JULY KC -16 454; MGE -11 518
Oats -2 185
Rice -10 984

LC Apr -30 13407; Aug -62 11895; Oct -47 11827
FC Apr -35 15555; Aug -112 15280; Oct -122 15027
LH Apr -47 6635; Jun -125 7962; Oct -45 6917
Milk Apr +2 1376; May +2 1369

 

US$ -.2%
Dow -21 17556
SP -6 2042
NAS -17 4833
Tran -37 7699
VIX +.90 16.26

WTI +64 4036
Brent +86 4280
Gas +4 150
NG -6 193
HO +1 121
Eth unch 151
Gold +14 1256
Slvr +55 1593

2-yr -.004 0.699%
5-yr -.002 1.158%
10yr +.003 1.725%
30yr +.004 2.561%

KFB’s Measure the Candidates Forum is highlighted on today’s Farm Bureau Minute.  
Click here:   https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AY7KTvZ2IE8

Another forum with the candidates is tonight at 6:30pm CT in Madisonville at the Ballard Convention Center. Please join us!
Kentucky Weekly Livestock Summary for the week of Apr 4-9, 2016.
Receipts
This Week     Last Week       Last Year
24,249            20,289           21,607
Compared to last week, Steer and Heifer calves traded unevenly steady to 5.00 lower with moderate to good demand for a plain to good quality offering. Most of the decline came later in the week as the CME futures trended lower. Yearling steers and heifers sold steady to firm early, but, untested the remainder of the week. Slaughter cows and slaughter bulls sold mostly 1.00 to 3.00 higher with moderate to good demand.

 

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